PTA Hit The Bottleneck

PTA, who once rose like a rainbow, is there any hope of reproducing its strength?

I believe that the PTA price center has shifted significantly, although there is still a rising inertia in the short term, the long-term trend needs attention.

Capital influx to consolidate the focus of the period price

Massive influx of funds is a major highlight of the PTA futures market.

The influx of funds pushed up the price and basically laid the focus of short-term price.

It can be expected that the trend of the price will show the characteristics of easy to rise and fall before the new funds leave mass.

From the recent trend and technical aspect, the price of the main contract has been pushed up to 9800 points (up to September 2nd, the main contract has been collected at 10016 yuan / ton), and this position is the location of the neckline in the front end of the shoulder, which has strong support for the price.

PX tight supply and demand

Because CNOOC Huizhou PX plant restart time extended to November, Fu Jia Dahua PX device is expected to be discontinued in September. The restart time is not yet decided, resulting in the second half of the year missing PX device annual capacity of 1 million 540 thousand tons, more than this year's only new Urumqi petrochemical PX plant production capacity of more than 540 thousand tons.

Therefore, after September, the supply of PX will be more than that of the beginning of the year.

Downstream or "busy season"

Although the upstream is more powerful, many factors restrict the market of polyester in the lower reaches.

First of all, the external economic situation is not ideal. The US economic growth rate has been reduced in recent days, and the demand for the terminal market is worrying.

Secondly, the domestic inflation pressure is high, the tightening policy has intensified the tension of the capital chain of the terminal enterprises, and the enterprise procurement performance is cautious.

In addition, the continued appreciation of the renminbi, the textile enterprises export profits reduced, the demand for raw materials is weak.

Although the downstream will enter the traditional peak season from September, there is still uncertainty about whether the market can really turn around.

If the downstream reappears in the first half of the year, the PTA price will not be effective if the cost is not effectively pmitted.