Chen Jianhao: There Are Lots Of Risks In Euro Chase.

Last week, the focus was on central bank meetings and non-agricultural data in the US, including 321000 new jobs in the United States, far exceeding 230 thousand of the market expectations, while the previous month's data were revised up to 44 thousand at the same time, making employment growth the best in nearly 15 years. Of course, one of the claims is that investors think that data is water. Seasonal factors such as Thanksgiving and Christmas make retailers and service industries recruit temporary workers. I do not deny that seasonal factors always exist before the end of the year, but this new growth seems to have appeared in all walks of life. For example, the decline in oil prices has made the manufacturing industry perform equally well.

My view on non-agricultural data has not been interested in figures since the middle of the year. As long as more than 200 thousand copies have been qualified, the average wage is more notable than the data. The wage increase is 0.4%, which is obviously faster than in the past, or can let the chairman of the Federal Reserve Yellen breathe a sigh of relief. As early as the September fed meeting, the Fed expressed concern that the strength of the US dollar would affect exports and suppress inflation. If wage growth continues, there will be a favorable recovery, which will benefit the Fed's first interest rate increase schedule.

And seen in the past half a year. Non-agricultural The average increase of 258 thousand figures has made the market again expect that the Fed will raise interest rates from the end of next year to the middle of next year. The market will be able to delete the word "maintain a low interest rate for a period" in the last Federal Reserve meeting on December, 16-17, so as to estimate the US interest rate timetable. After the publication of the data, the US stock market has reached a new high. US dollar index It has risen to the highest level in eight years, and the US debt interest has rebounded upward, making money inflow into US dollar assets.

The other side European Central Bank Only when it is necessary to increase the amount of money and substantially reduce the expected economic growth and economic growth in 2015, it is believed that the ECB still wants to see a miracle. We should like to see the decision of the second round of TLTRO this week before making a decision. Especially at present, the interest rate of a lot of European pig debt is at a low level, and the cost of borrowing is very low. If the enterprise still has no intention to increase investment, it will force the European Central Bank to finally make a move. The resistance is still obvious in the core countries such as Germany, because Germany's economic growth is slow, but the domestic unemployment rate is at a historical low level. It is not necessarily necessary to stimulate the economy through easing. In contrast, other European countries, such as Spain, Italy and Greece, have more worries inside the economy. If they do not take measures to expand the economy, it will be difficult to stimulate the economy.

The euro fell against the US dollar against the 1.23 level after the data release. However, the US dollar index still does not believe that there will be room for further improvement at the 90 level. Investors must be careful in further shorting the euro. I still believe that the euro will still have a high chance of consolidating the 2014 market in the year, and the expected low level will be between 1.2250-1.2550.