Economic Indicators Dropped In 2015: Sufficient Ammunition For Stable Growth

A series of economic development goals for this year have been unveiled with the release of the Government Work Report.

Not surprisingly, the State Council has set a GDP growth target of about 7% and CPI target of about 3% for 2015. Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council, explained in the report that the setting of this economic growth goal is consistent with the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, with the requirements of expanding the total economic volume and upgrading the structure, in line with the law of development and objective reality.

Yesterday (March 5), after the Prime Minister made the government work report, discussions on the goal of about 7% have been carried out in all stations of the two sessions. Du Ying, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, told the Daily Economic News that this is a relatively appropriate speed.

　　 annual CPI Target 3%

Jia Kang, member of the CPPCC National Committee and former director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Finance, analyzed that this year's economic growth is set at around 7%, which puts a great pressure on local governments and enterprises, "Don't pay too much attention to the performance of the economic growth rate indicators, but more attention should be paid to the structural changes, employment, growth quality behind the GDP growth, as well as the related environmental indicators and the guarantee of people's basic livelihood."

Zhang Xiaoji, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and researcher of the Department of Foreign Economic Research of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told reporters that China's GDP target last year was about 7.5%, and the actual completion was 7.4%, which was within a reasonable range, but we also saw considerable difficulties in the process of completion. In the current environment of economic restructuring and reform, reducing the growth rate to about 7% can reduce the pressure on stable growth. "The reduction of GDP growth at the national level also conveys a gesture to local governments, encouraging and urging local governments to shift their focus to reform and structural adjustment as soon as possible."

In addition to GDP, the annual CPI target is about 3%, 0.5 percentage point lower than last year. According to recent data, China's monthly CPI growth rate is still less than 1%. A member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), who declined to be named, said that it is hard to expect the CPI target to exceed 2% this year. However, more attention should be paid to the price reform and monetary policy The space reserved in the adjustment.

In addition, the import and export growth rate is set at 6%. Zhang Xiaoji believes that the setting of this number reflects our positive attitude. China has made great efforts in opening up this year, vigorously promoting the "Belt and Road" strategy, and constantly strengthening its support for "going global".

However, he also said that from the perspective of exports alone, the current global economy is in a downturn, the total volume of global trade is stagnant, the developed countries have also experienced a complex situation of monetary policy differentiation, and the RMB real effective exchange rate is still high, so it is difficult to achieve this goal.

　 Continue for foreign trade "Help"

In terms of foreign trade export, the government work report proposed to promote the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade, improve the burden mechanism of export tax rebate, and the central finance should fully bear the incremental part, so that local governments and enterprises can have a "reassurance". Clean up and standardize import and export charges, establish and publish the list of charges.

In Zhang Xiaoji's view, this is the embodiment of implementing a proactive fiscal policy

For example, at present, cross-border e-commerce has become a new growth point to help China's economic restructuring. Suning has launched the "overseas purchase" service since 2013, providing users with a full process of overseas consumption services, including pre purchase consultation, Yifubao guaranteed transactions, logistics tracking, domestic return and replacement, and after-sales.

In addition, the monetary policy is more tightened and moderately tightened. The Premier said that the broad money M2 is expected to grow by about 12%. In actual implementation, it can also be slightly higher according to the needs of economic development.

Bai Hexiang, member of the CPPCC National Committee and director of the Chongqing Business Management Department of the People's Bank of China, said, The M2 target is generally set as the sum of GDP growth and CPI growth, leaving some room. "The government work report also said that it can be slightly higher, which should be in response to the uncertainty in the economic downturn. In a certain period, monetary policy regulation can support economic development."