Stabilizing The Stock Market: Stamp Duty Is Not High And The Probability Is Not High.

In addition to the SFC's stability and stability of the stock market, the central bank, the Ministry of Finance and other ministries and even the prime ministers are all voicing support for the economy and capital markets recently. But market confidence is still unstable. Some people are looking forward to the stamp duty reduction policy. What do you think is the possibility of this policy? When will the sustained policy combination produce positive results?

Wen Lijun: at present, the capital market is already collecting stamp duty unilaterally, only stamp duty is only sold at the selling stage. If we reduce the stamp duty, is it not encouraging short selling? Therefore, we believe that the probability and necessity of the policy are not high, and there is no need to rush to the doctor. In fact, the dividend tax raised by the three ministries and commissions has been exempted from tax for more than one year, and it will be more positive for the stock market, especially for long-term capital stocks with long-term holdings.

At present,

The continuous voice, which represents the determination and desire to stabilize the RMB asset prices, is also aimed at preventing possible local or systemic financial risks. The current 2 rescue actions have undergone significant changes. Unlike the previous bail-out of genuine gold and silver, the current emphasis on long-term system building and market confidence reconstruction is committed to the medium and long term initiatives. More quantitative changes are taking place after the qualitative change. It is difficult to produce immediate results. Therefore, the market's repeated shocks will continue to build.

However, at present, the concentrated rescue plan for blue chip stocks with low valuation is conducive to the bottoming process of the market, which is essentially different from the 4000 point rescue effect.

Therefore, at present, excessive pessimism and excessive radicalization are not necessary. Wait for some disturbing factors that affect market risk preference to clear up the market value regression.

I think it is unlikely that the stamp tax adjustment policy will be introduced in the near future.

Historically, the stamp duty has been reduced for many times to stimulate the market, but it can not reverse the downward trend of the market and only stimulate the short-term market.

In the near future, when the SFC severely combates excessive speculation, it is unlikely that the short-term stimulus policy will be introduced.

At present, there are rumors in the market that dividend tax will be introduced, and stamp duty will be levied according to the duration of stock holding. Long-term holding may be exempted from a certain period of time and short-term holdings will not be lowered.

The recent market has ended the performance of continuous unilateral decline, and the fluctuation has obviously decreased. This shows that the continuous policy combination has already worked.

Here is a concept to clarify.

The purpose is not necessarily to raise the index to a high level. There are "soft landing" and "hard landing" in economics. For regulators, it is all market behavior and no need to intervene too much, but to avoid "hard landing", the stock market crash is a "hard landing", so the regulators will make a strong effort.

But the purpose of shooting is not necessarily to go back to the original position, or to "hard landing" as a "soft landing". This must be clear.