Economic Downturn: Economic Inflation Is Slowing Down.

The biggest risk of the economy or real estate, only reform is expected to be U.

In May, the scale of social financing was 659 billion 900 million yuan, which is expected to be 10000 billion yuan and a former value of 751 billion yuan.

In May, the new RMB loan was 985 billion 500 million yuan, which was expected to be 750 billion yuan, with a value of 555 billion 600 million yuan.

In May, M2 was 11.8%, 12.5% and 12.8%.

In May, M1 was 23.7%, 21.9% and 22.9%.

Comment:

(1) the core point of view is that social harmony and economic decline are related to the upswing in the first quarter, the weakening of corporate financing demand, the reduction of bills and corporate bonds and so on.

Credit increases, housing contributions are large, the whole society investment and financing to the housing market tilt, with the real estate sales peaked down, the future residents long loan may be a high slowdown.

M1M2 scissors gap further expanded, enterprises hoarding cash and currency multiplier decreased, indicating that the micro subjects are increasingly cautious about the economic outlook.

It has endogenous inertia.

The biggest risk of the current macro economy may come from real estate, and some housing companies plus leverage to stir up land, similar to last year's over-the-counter investment umbrella trust super stock, the difference is the impact on the economy, real estate is the mother of the cycle, the ten crisis nine real estate, is worth vigilance.

Under the background of the return of cargo policy to neutral, steady growth is increasingly dependent on the financial L model. The reform is political economy.

To maintain economic short-term W type, medium term L type, long term only reform is expected to U type of judgement.

As social integration, M2 and investment fall, the inflation is coming to a close. Judging from the factors such as rising pig prices, rising oil prices, rainy weather, housing market peaking and return to neutral goods, CPI is expected to consolidate for some time after the slowdown.

(2) society is melting and falling.

And corporate bonds.

In the 1 quarter, after the record of social integration increased, it fell for two consecutive months. In May, the social integration increased by 659 billion 900 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 579 billion 800 million yuan compared with the same period last year.

Among them, by strengthening the supervision of negotiable instruments and standardizing bills business by banks, the discount of non discount bank acceptance bills was reduced by 506 billion 600 million yuan, a decrease of 602 billion 700 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and the situation of 270 billion 400 million yuan reduction in the previous month was further reduced.

Net financing decreased by 39 billion 700 million yuan, less than 210 billion 700 million yuan compared with the same period last year, but the situation decreased by 436 billion 100 million yuan last month.

3. Credit increases and housing loans contribute greatly.

RMB loans increased by 985 billion 500 million yuan in May, an increase of 429 billion 900 million yuan compared with April.

Among them, residents' short-term and long-term loans, short-term and medium and long-term loans were reduced by 54 billion 200 million yuan, increased by 100 billion 100 million yuan, reduced by 80 billion 400 million yuan, and reduced by 225 billion 500 million yuan respectively, all of which improved in varying degrees.

Residents' long-term loans increased by 528 billion 100 million, the highest in a single month, mainly due to the delayed issuance of mortgage loans, with the real estate sales peaked callback, residents' loans may slow down.

In May, the scale of issuance of local government bonds decreased significantly from last month, and the effect of debt replacement instead of credit weakened. However, after June, local debt issuance will still replace the repayment of loans.

5 month real estate investment downturn, real estate, manufacturing and private investment slowed down significantly, capital investment alone tree support, superimposed real estate peaked, corporate financing demand is weak.

(4) the M1M2 scissors gap further expanded, enterprises hoarded cash and the money multiplier decreased, indicating that the micro subjects were very cautious about the economic prospect.

In May, M2 grew by 11.8% year-on-year, a new low in the past year, reflecting the impact of cargo neutral and economic slowdown.

M1 grew by 23.7%, a new high.

According to estimates, since the housing market was hot in the second half of 2015, residents' savings deposits in the M1 structure have declined, and demand deposits for businesses and governments have risen, and the structure of social investment and financing has further declined to real estate related departments.

Recently, some of the housing companies have increased their leverage to sell land. Similar to last year's OTC fund umbrella trust, the difference is the impact on the economy, real estate is the mother of the cycle, the ten crisis is the nine real estate, and the risk is worth vigilance.

161 billion 900 million of fiscal deposits, 770 billion less than the ratio of the central government, and the accelerated progress of fiscal spending. The fiscal expenditure in May increased by 17.6% over the same period last year.