Ethylene Glycol Rises And Resists Heavily, Keeps Digesting Inventory And Stimulating Demand.

Downstream polyester demand is still affordable, cost side support, but domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises started high, port inventory reached a record high, corporate profits narrowed obviously, individual enterprises have seen losses, ethylene glycol enterprises how to deal with.

Up to now, the domestic ethylene glycol glycol plant has a starting rate of 78%, a daily supply of about 15 thousand and 200 tons, and a coal glycol plant operating rate of 72% and a daily supply of about 9 thousand and 700 tons; the domestic supply is relatively stable, with an increase expected next week.

Comparison of domestic MEG main port stock and market price in China

Source: lung Chung

As of March 14th, the MEG port in East China's main port area has a stock of about 1 million 175 thousand tons, an increase of 10 thousand tons compared with last Thursday.

Among them, 89.2 tons in Zhangjiagang, an increase of 32 thousand tons per annulus, a daily average delivery of some 7000 tons of a mainstream warehouse, 67 thousand tons of Ningbo, a reduction of 17 thousand tons per annulus, 94 thousand tons of Shanghai and Changshu, a reduction of 5 thousand tons per annulus, 92 thousand tons of Taicang, an increase of 1 thousand tons per annulus, and an average daily shipment of about 4000 tons in the mainstream reservoir area.

(added to the Changshu thousand red reservoir area), we heard that the port still has 5-6 tons of cargo to be discharged.

Next week, the East China port is expected to reach 185 thousand tons near the port, of which 85 thousand tons are expected to arrive in Zhangjiagang, 45 thousand tons for Taicang port, 40 thousand tons for Ningbo, and 15 thousand tons for Shanghai port.

The start-up load of the downstream polyester plant is 86.7%, the price of the polyester plant is stable, the inventory pressure is relieved, and the polyester product inventory is pferred downward to the weaving factory. However, the overall production and marketing is weak, and the load of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms starts to be around 70%.

Ps: this week, polyester chips started at 94.68%, production and marketing was 43.8%, and inventory was around 14 days.

Polyester staple started at 85.69% production and sale 48 stock for 3-8 days.

Polyester filament started at 94.68%, production and marketing at 43.8%, stock in 14 days.

Long Zhong data monitoring, naphtha ethylene glycol theoretical profit of $56 / ton, ethylene ethylene glycol theoretical profit of -150 U.S. dollars / ton, the theoretical profit of coal to ethylene glycol is -160 yuan / ton up and down (individual enterprises are their own technology, their own catalysts, but also lingering on the positive and negative margins).

Conclusion: enterprises start high, inventory history is high, enterprises have no profits, downstream demand is high, but production and marketing are poor, and the value-added tax reduction in April 1st is even worse.

The traditional peak season has not arrived at the scheduled time. This is the late spring cold. Some enterprises are still insisting that the market will get better, some have given up, and the risk of parking will be avoided.

Personally believe that the short-term market will continue low-end ethylene glycol market, digest inventory, stimulate terminal demand.